Prediction Marketplace

The Market Opportunity

Prediction markets just went mainstream. Wall Street has committed $4.5 billion to the category (ICE alone put $2B into Polymarket), and the leading venues now carry $15B (Polymarket) and $22B (Kalshi) valuations. Combined monthly volume hit $28 billion in May 2026 — a quarter-trillion-dollar annual run rate, still accelerating. The CFTC issued its first federal framework on June 10, 2026, and industry projections put the category at $1 trillion by 2030.

Yet every major venue — Polymarket, Kalshi, Hyperliquid — makes the same structural choice: cap payouts at $1 per share. CFTC-registered binary contracts require full collateralization at a fixed maximum, so your maximum profit is locked the moment you buy. BASIS runs uncapped pari-mutuel instead — the only venue on the other side of that architecture.

That makes incumbent volume our addressable market, not our competition. Every dollar traded on a capped venue is a position that can be hedged on BASIS — we grow as the category grows, toward a trillion dollars.

Introducing Predict+

Predict+ combines event-based markets with investment-grade assets. Unlike traditional binary platforms, Predict+ creates a comprehensive prediction economy.

Critical distinction: Each prediction market has one Predict+ token — not individual outcomes. Buying the token is separate from betting on outcomes. Token trades on DEX; betting through a separate USDC pool.

The Problem with Traditional Prediction Markets

Conventional platforms cap payouts at $1 per share. Basis runs pari-mutuel: winners split the entire losing pool, uncapped. Markets support up to 150 outcomes each. Basis is built by Veilon AG (Switzerland) and currently operates offshore, open to ~190 countries; restricted jurisdictions are geo-blocked.

The Predict+ Solution: One Token Per Market

Four Ways to Participate

  1. Hold for appreciation: Token only goes up (Stable+ mechanics) — invest in event popularity without gambling
  2. Trade on DEX: Capture volatility from news and sentiment
  3. Use as collateral: 100% LTV loans against your Predict+ tokens
  4. Bet on outcomes: USDC payouts through separate betting pool — uncapped

Post-Resolution Selling Dynamic

After resolution, selling burns tokens > slippage stays in the pool > price goes UP. Patient holders exit at higher prices than early sellers.

Event Creation

Step 1: Event name, symbol, icon, description, optional end date, 2 to 150 mutually exclusive answers.

Step 2: Bonding phase target ($0-$150,000), Resolution Style (Basis Managed or Creator Managed), Event Type (Public or Private).

Seed amount (creating a market): Basis Managed: minimum 50 USDB. Creator Managed (public): minimum 10 USDB. Creator Managed (private): minimum 0. Creators earn 20% of all trading fees in perpetuity.

Betting Mechanics

  • Share prices start at equal split ($0.50 each for binary, $0.33 for three-way)
  • As shares are purchased, price/probability adjusts
  • Payout = (Your Winning Shares / Total Winning Shares) x Total Prize Pool
  • Uncapped payouts: Predict+ shares are NOT capped at $1 — a 5c share can pay $4+ on resolution depending on the size of the losing pool
  • Exit before resolution via the order book

The Trader-to-Bettor Pot

Trading fees flow into a bounty pot paid to winning outcome. More token traders = bigger pot = more bettors = more excitement. Symbiotic loop.

Resolution

Basis Managed: An AI resolver proposes most outcomes within hours; a second AI audits the proposal. The two bonded judges are accountable to each other. If undisputed, the outcome settles; if disputed, it escalates to BASIS staker governance arbitration (humans are the appeals layer). Invalid markets trigger full refunds.

Creator Managed: Creator or up to 10 voter wallets decide by majority. Final — no dispute process. "Invalid" option available.

Discussion Tab

Wallet-signed comments. Requires 1 trade > $5 on that market (anti-spam). Creator badge shown.

Revenue Model

Trading fee: 1.5% gross (1% recycled to prediction ecosystem — 0.95% winning pot + 0.05% bounty pool — and 0.5% net platform). Net platform fee distribution: Creator 20% (perpetual) > Reward-phase buyers 4% > STASIS Staking 16% > BASIS Staking 48% > Team Treasury 12%.

Competitive Advantage

Uncapped pari-mutuel payouts vs $1/share cap | Open to ~190 countries (restricted jurisdictions geo-blocked) | Token investment separate from betting | MEV-resistant | Stable+ backing on every prediction token