Prediction Marketplace

The Market Opportunity

Prediction markets just went mainstream. Wall Street has committed $4.5 billion to the category (ICE alone put $2B into Polymarket), and the leading venues now carry $15B (Polymarket) and $22B (Kalshi) valuations. Combined monthly volume hit $28 billion in May 2026 — a quarter-trillion-dollar annual run rate, still accelerating. Industry projections put the category at $1 trillion by 2030.

Yet every major venue — Polymarket, Kalshi, Hyperliquid — makes the same structural choice: cap payouts at $1 per share. Fully collateralised binary contracts fix the maximum in advance, so your maximum profit is locked the moment you buy. BASIS runs uncapped pari-mutuel instead — the only venue on the other side of that architecture.

That makes incumbent volume our addressable market, not our competition. Every dollar traded on a capped venue is a position that can be hedged on BASIS — we grow as the category grows, toward a trillion dollars.

What the Replay Shows

We replayed 111 settled Polymarket markets, every trade on every outcome and $422M of notional, under BASIS pool rules. 61% of winning wallets and 71% of winning money would have finished ahead of the order book, and across the 77 longshot-won markets the winning side would have taken 1.33× more out of the pool. Early money did best: 1.85× the book on the typical field and 4.95× on fields of 31+ outcomes. The measured cost of trading the book rises from 1.3% on small fields to 7.9% on wide ones (blended 7.6%), against a flat 1.5% pool fee. The pool beats the book up to 70.5c, and the window where it wins sits at 71-78% of the pot. Parlays return 98.5c on the dollar, against New Jersey's 75.8c.

How the Venue Is Structured

Veilon AG develops and owns the software and does not operate the venue. The venue runs offshore, open to roughly 190 countries, with restricted jurisdictions geo-blocked at the interface. Pari-mutuel is not a novel structure: it is a mechanism that has been supervised for a century, and Polymarket is the nearest precedent for the on-chain form of it.

Introducing Predict+

Predict+ combines event-based markets with investment-grade assets. Unlike traditional binary platforms, Predict+ creates a comprehensive prediction economy.

Critical distinction: Each prediction market has one Predict+ token — not individual outcomes. Buying the token is separate from betting on outcomes. Token trades on DEX; betting through a separate USDC pool.

The Problem with Traditional Prediction Markets

Conventional platforms cap payouts at $1 per share. Basis runs pari-mutuel: winners split the entire losing pool, uncapped. Markets support up to 150 outcomes each. Basis is built by Veilon AG (Switzerland) and currently operates offshore, open to ~190 countries; restricted jurisdictions are geo-blocked.

The Predict+ Solution: One Token Per Market

Four Ways to Participate

  1. Hold for appreciation: Token only goes up (Stable+ mechanics) — invest in event popularity without gambling
  2. Trade on DEX: Capture volatility from news and sentiment
  3. Use as collateral: 100% LTV loans against your Predict+ tokens
  4. Bet on outcomes: USDC payouts through separate betting pool — uncapped

Post-Resolution Selling Dynamic

After resolution, selling burns tokens > slippage stays in the pool > price goes UP. Patient holders exit at higher prices than early sellers.

Event Creation

Step 1: Event name, symbol, icon, description, optional end date, 2 to 150 mutually exclusive answers.

Step 2: Reward phase allocation — set by the creator, and it can be zero ($0-$150,000) — Resolution Style (Basis Managed or Creator Managed), Event Type (Public or Private).

Seed amount (creating a market): Basis Managed: minimum 50 USDB. Creator Managed (public): minimum 10 USDB. Creator Managed (private): minimum 0. Creators earn 20% of all trading fees in perpetuity.

Betting Mechanics

  • Share prices start at equal split ($0.50 each for binary, $0.33 for three-way)
  • As shares are purchased, price/probability adjusts
  • Payout = (Your Winning Shares / Total Winning Shares) x Total Prize Pool
  • Uncapped payouts: Predict+ shares are NOT capped at $1 — a 5c share can pay $4+ on resolution depending on the size of the losing pool
  • Exit before resolution via the order book

Resolution

Basis Managed: An AI resolver proposes most outcomes within hours; a second AI audits the proposal. The two bonded judges are accountable to each other. If undisputed, the outcome settles; if disputed, it escalates to BASIS staker governance arbitration (humans are the appeals layer). Invalid markets trigger full refunds.

Creator Managed: Creator or up to 10 voter wallets decide by majority. Final — no dispute process. "Invalid" option available.

Discussion Tab

Wallet-signed comments. Requires 1 trade > $5 on that market (anti-spam). Creator badge shown.

Revenue Model

Trading fee: 1.5%, and all of it flows through the standard waterfall. There is no carve-out, no winning-pot recycling and no bounty pool.

Fee payouts are made in USDB, and the split has two columns because it changes at TGE. Today: company 60 (of which 12 treasury and 48 that transfers at TGE) · creator 20 · STASIS vault 16 · reward phase holders 4. At TGE: BASIS staking contract 48 · creator 20 · STASIS vault 16 · treasury 12 · reward phase holders 4. At TGE, 48% of fees - four fifths of the company's current 60% - route to the BASIS staking contract. The BASIS staking share can never fall below 30%, and every fee setter is capped at 200bps; both are hard contract limits.

Competitive Advantage

Uncapped pari-mutuel payouts vs $1/share cap | Open to ~190 countries (restricted jurisdictions geo-blocked) | Token investment separate from betting | MEV-resistant | Stable+ backing on every prediction token