Prediction Marketplace

The Market Opportunity

Prediction markets just went mainstream. Wall Street has committed $4.5 billion to the category (ICE alone put $2B into Polymarket), and the leading venues now carry $15B (Polymarket) and $22B (Kalshi) valuations. Combined monthly volume hit $28 billion in May 2026, a quarter-trillion-dollar annual run rate, still accelerating. Industry projections put the category at $1 trillion by 2030.

Yet every major venue (Polymarket, Kalshi, Hyperliquid) makes the same structural choice: cap payouts at $1 per share. Fully collateralized binary contracts fix the maximum in advance, so your maximum profit is locked the moment you buy. BASIS runs an uncapped, modified pari-mutuel pool instead.

That makes incumbent volume our addressable market, not our competition. Every dollar traded on a capped venue is a position that can be hedged on BASIS: we grow as the category grows.

What the Replay Shows

We replayed 111 settled Polymarket markets, every trade on every outcome and $422M of notional, under BASIS pool rules. 61% of winning wallets and 71% of winning money would have finished ahead of the order book, and across the 77 longshot-won markets the winning side would have collected 1.33× what the book paid it. Early money did best: 1.85× the book on the typical field and 4.95× on fields of 31+ outcomes. The measured cost of trading the book rises from 1.3% on small fields to 7.9% on wide ones (blended 7.6%), against the 1.5% pool fee the replay assumed. The pool beats the book up to 70.5c, and the window where it wins sits at 71-78% of the pot. Parlays return 98.5c on the dollar, against New Jersey's 75.8c.

How the Venue Is Structured

Veilon AG develops and owns the software and does not operate the venue. The venue runs offshore, open to roughly 190 countries, with restricted jurisdictions geo-blocked at the interface. Pari-mutuel is not a novel structure: it is a mechanism that has been supervised for a century, and Polymarket is the nearest precedent for the on-chain form of it.

Introducing Predict+

Predict+ combines event-based markets with investment-grade assets. Unlike traditional binary platforms, Predict+ creates a full prediction economy.

Critical distinction: each prediction market has one Predict+ token, not individual outcomes. Buying the token is separate from predicting outcomes. The token trades on the DEX; predictions go through a separate prediction pool.

The Problem with Traditional Prediction Markets

Conventional platforms cap payouts at $1 per share. Basis runs a modified pari-mutuel pool: all stakes merge into one pot and the winners split the whole pot, uncapped. Markets support up to 150 outcomes each, and a built-in P2P order book lets holders sell shares before resolution. Basis is built by Veilon AG (Switzerland) and operates offshore, open to ~190 countries; restricted jurisdictions are geo-blocked.

Market Types

From the Robinhood Chain launch: Winner, Podium, UP/DOWN, Exacta (including trifecta, superfecta and box), Parlay and Survivor.

The Predict+ Solution: One Token Per Market

Four Ways to Participate

  1. Hold: the token only goes up (Stable+ mechanics), so you can back an event's popularity without predicting an outcome
  2. Trade on the DEX: capture moves from news and sentiment
  3. Use as collateral: borrow 100% of its value against your Predict+ tokens
  4. Predict outcomes: uncapped payouts through the separate prediction pool

Post-Resolution Selling Dynamic

After resolution, selling burns tokens, slippage stays in the pool, and the price goes up. Patient holders exit at higher prices than early sellers.

Event Creation

Step 1: event name, symbol, icon, description, optional end date, 2 to 150 mutually exclusive answers.

Step 2: reward phase allocation (set by the creator; it can be zero, $0-$150,000), resolution style (Basis Managed or Creator Managed), event type (Public or Private).

Seed amount (creating a market): Basis Managed: minimum 50 USDB. Creator Managed (public): minimum 10 USDB. Creator Managed (private): minimum 0. From the Robinhood Chain launch, creators set their own fee of 0 to 1% on trades of their market's token.

Prediction Mechanics

  • Share prices start at an equal split ($0.50 each for binary, $0.33 for three-way)
  • As shares are purchased, price/probability adjusts
  • Payout = (Your Winning Shares / Total Winning Shares) x Total Prize Pool, where the prize pool is the whole pot
  • Uncapped payouts: Predict+ shares are NOT capped at $1: a 5c share can pay $4+ on resolution, depending on how much was staked on the other outcomes
  • Exit before resolution via the order book

Resolution

Basis Managed: an AI resolver proposes most outcomes within hours; a second AI audits the proposal. The two bonded judges are accountable to each other. If undisputed, the outcome settles; if disputed, it goes to a vote of staked voters (humans are the appeals layer). Invalid markets trigger full refunds.

Creator Managed: public creator markets follow the proposal, dispute and vote process described in Betting on Events. Private markets are resolved by the creator or up to 10 voter wallets by majority, with no dispute process. An "Invalid" option is available.

Discussion Tab

Wallet-signed comments. Requires 1 trade over $5 on that market (anti-spam). Creator badge shown.

Revenue Model

From the Robinhood Chain launch, every prediction pays the 0.60% base fee (1.5% during testing on BNB Chain), split as described in Transaction Fees. There is no carve-out, no winning-pot recycling and no bounty pool taken from the fee.

Competitive Advantage

Uncapped pari-mutuel payouts vs a $1/share cap | Up to 150 outcomes per market | Open to ~190 countries (restricted jurisdictions geo-blocked) | Token investment separate from predicting | Stable+ backing on every prediction token